U.S. added 254,000 jobs in September

Good morning, Dwellers! Welcome to another edition of Dwellings Digest, a realtor and investor driven newsletter simplifying real estate, exploring the economy-stock-real estate link, adding a fun twist with niche topics and more. Enjoy!

Quote of the day - “In real estate, you're not just buying walls; you're investing in a lifetime of memories”

In today’s edition - The U.S. added 254,000 jobs in September, surpassing expectations. Unemployment dropped to 4.1%, with growth in food services, health care, and construction sectors. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps in November, boosting real estate investment. Multifamily demand rises as high mortgage rates discourage homebuying, while office and retail sectors see mixed job growth. CBRE forecasts continued economic stability, supporting housing and commercial markets despite global risks.

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🏛️ Economic & Market Sentiment

• The U.S. added 254,000 jobs in September, surpassing expectations of 150,000, with July and August job gains revised up by 72,000.

• Strong job growth was seen in food services, health care, and government sectors.

• The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%, and the labor force participation rate held steady at 62.7%. Average hourly earnings rose by 4.0% year-over-year, reflecting wage growth.

• CBRE expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 bps in November, supporting investment activity in real estate as Treasury yields stabilize.

The Bottom Line:

September’s strong job growth suggests a resilient labor market, supporting Q3 GDP growth. CBRE anticipates that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps in both November and December, leading to a full percentage point reduction in 2024. This economic environment will continue to foster real estate investment and leasing activity, with signs of a soft landing for the U.S. economy despite global risks.

Real Estate Stats for September

• Office Sector: 22,000 office-using jobs were added in September, with gains in financial activities (+5,000) and professional & business services (+17,000). This job growth may boost leasing activity as economic growth stabilizes.

• Industrial Sector: 18,000 jobs were lost, including warehousing & storage (-11,000) and manufacturing (-7,000). Despite these losses, consumer spending and e-commerce will sustain demand for industrial and logistics spaces.

• Retail Sector: 85,000 jobs were added, with food services gaining 69,400 and traditional retail adding 15,600 jobs. Strong consumer services demand will uphold retail fundamentals.

• Construction Sector: 25,000 new jobs exceeded the 12-month average, driven by federal infrastructure programs and residential construction. Despite interest rate sensitivity, construction activity remains robust.

• Health Care Sector: The sector added 45,200 jobs, led by ambulatory services (+24,300) and hospitals (+11,500). Demand for health-care real estate will rise with an aging population.

• Hotels Sector: 6,600 jobs were added, although hotel demand may moderate as pandemic savings diminish. However, experience-based spending remains strong.

• Multifamily Sector: Continued job growth supports household formation, boosting rental demand as high mortgage costs deter home-buying.

🎙️ RE Spotlight

Trump vs Harris: Renters Debate Who Is Better for Housing Affordability

• Kamala Harris Leads Among Renters for Housing Solutions: Nearly half of surveyed renters (48.4%) believe Kamala Harris is the best candidate to address the housing affordability crisis, reflecting the Democratic leanings of younger, urban dwellers.

• Trump’s Support Grows in Housing Debate: While Harris takes the lead, almost one-third (31.2%) of renters think Donald Trump could best tackle housing affordability, signaling a divide in priorities for voters in the rental market.

• Coordinated Effort Needed for Housing Affordability: Redfin’s chief economist emphasizes that solving the housing crisis requires more than presidential action; federal and local governments must collaborate to promote homebuilding and reduce the housing shortage.

A Slower Market, A Smarter Buy: How Today's Housing Trends Benefit Buyers

• Homes Are Staying on the Market Longer, Giving Buyers More Time: With homes spending an average of 55 days on the market—up seven days from last year—buyers now have the breathing room to make informed decisions without the fear of rushing into a deal.

• Negotiation Opportunities Abound: As the market cools, buyers can negotiate everything from lower bids to repair requests and closing costs. The shift means less cash upfront and a return to key buyer protections, like home inspections.

• Long-Term Value Over Quick Decisions: With more properties lingering, savvy buyers are taking the time to seek out homes priced below market comps, creating opportunities to score better deals without being pressured by fierce competition.

🏰 RE State Zone

Asheville’s Resilience Put to the Test: Rebuilding After Hurricane Helene’s Devastation

• Asheville’s Artistic Hub Faces Unimaginable Loss: The beloved arts district and Biltmore Village, once the heart of the city's cultural and economic vibrancy, have been decimated. Local small businesses, such as Flow at Foundy yoga studio, face uncertain futures as the floodwaters wiped out months of hard work and investments.

• Small Businesses and Residents Fear for Asheville’s Future: With nearly 50% of small businesses never reopening after natural disasters, local owners wonder whether the economy can rebound. Many, like skincare entrepreneur Emma Allen, have suffered hundreds of thousands in losses, underscoring the challenges of rebuilding.

• Tourism and Local Economy Hang in the Balance: Asheville, known for its stunning mountain views and thriving tourism, has seen its lifeblood disrupted. With popular attractions like the Biltmore Estate and the Blue Ridge Parkway temporarily closed, a critical sector of the city's economy faces significant setbacks.

🏕️ Niche-RE

Advancing Property Innovation with AI: The New Standard for the Real Estate Industry

1. AI-Powered Efficiency and Accuracy: The integration of AI into property workflows is transforming how professionals operate, reducing reliance on manual inputs while providing instant, data-driven insights. From appraisal report generation to virtual property tours, AI streamlines tasks, freeing professionals to focus on delivering superior customer service.

2. Data Quality is Paramount for AI Success: High-quality, accurate data is the cornerstone of AI's potential in the property industry. As CoreLogic's leaders emphasize, AI models are only as good as the data they rely on, making it essential to use reliable, unbiased data sources for more dependable and actionable outcomes.

3. Combatting Bias for Fairer Real Estate Solutions: AI's responsible use involves more than just innovation—it requires rigorous oversight to ensure fairness. CoreLogic's AI governance protocols aim to identify and eliminate biases, promoting equitable outcomes in property valuations, mortgage approvals, and other real estate processes.

🖼️ Chart-Tastic

🌍 Dwelling of the Day

Masterpiece of Modern Architecture, Oceanfront of Maui’s North Shore

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And…that's a wrap on this edition!

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